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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a ceasefire agreement developed with US officials are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives are expected to present the documentation to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the conflict remains uncertain, especially given the Russian absence from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president said that the US Congress was anticipated to consider defense assurances and that a complete package of agreements could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the United States would engage in discussions with Moscow, potentially followed by summit-level talks possibly this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five key agreements. Some of them pertain to binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, approved and endorsed by the US Congress,” the president commented to journalists. He stated that these assurances would “mirror article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, US officials did not provide precise information regarding the likely contents of the security package or the consequences if Russia sought to capture more land after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the U.S. does not intend to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European nations issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting safer seas, potentially by operating inside its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these measures would constitute assurances equivalent to NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Moscow is anywhere close to agreeing to the kind of arrangement being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Russian government stated it had not received the specifics of the proposals on security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that the country would not agree to forces of NATO member states being stationed in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators remains the territorial question. A key demand involves Ukraine relinquishing the areas of the Donbas region it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side wants to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. As is known, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy said after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, led by two senior advisors, has suggested a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukraine pull back, but Russia would not move forward, with the resulting zone established as “an open economic area.” Moscow has suggested it could use police and national guard formations instead of the army in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Moscow. Not legally or in practice do we accept the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement such as a special economic area might be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a national vote. The major impediment is likely to be when the plans are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with precisely the situation we are encountering on our flight right now – turbulence,” said Zelenskyy, recording the comments as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with more weapons if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a fair request from us to the United States,” he added.